Donnerstag, 30. September 2010

Minister’s Statement on Banking 30 September 2010

Statement der Regierung unter:

http://www.finance.gov.ie/viewdoc.asp?DocID=6515&CatID=1&StartDate=1+January+2010&m=n

der interessanteste Absatz:

Burden sharing by holders of subordinated debt in Anglo Irish Bank
Much has been said about senior debt obligations in Anglo Irish Bank. The position is that senior debt obligations rank equally with deposits and other creditors under Irish law. I have no plans to change this position. There is, therefore, no question of seeking to impose losses on holders of such senior debt in Anglo or indeed in any other credit institution in the State through any legislative measures. Any alternative strategy as advocated by some creates a significant risk of jeopardising the banking system’s and indeed the State’s access to international debt markets and cannot be countenanced on that basis.

The principle of appropriate burden sharing by holders of subordinated debt, however, is one with which I agree. As can be seen from the figures outlined above, the losses in the bank are substantial and it is right that the holders of Anglo’s subordinated debt should share the costs which have arisen.

In keeping with this approach, my Department in conjunction with the Attorney General is working on resolution and reorganisation legislation, which will enable the implementation of reorganisation measures specific to Anglo Irish Bank and INBS which will address the issue of burden-sharing by subordinated bondholders. The legislation will be consistent with the requirements for the measures to be recognised as a re-organisation under the relevant EU Directive in other EU Member States.

I expect the subordinated debt holders to make a significant contribution towards meeting the costs of Anglo.

--------------------------------


sieht ganz danach aus als möchte man mit der Drohkulisse einer geplanten Gesetzesänderung die Inhaber der nachrangigen Bonds zur Annahme des geplanten Rückkaufangebots bewegen. Die Anleihen sind heute stark unter Druck und notieren bei 25%


Anglo-Rechnung kostet Iren 29,3 Mrd. Euro

Total Anglo bill '€29.3bn'

30/09/2010 - 07:13:22
The Central Bank has said the final bill for Anglo Irish Bank means another €5bn is needed from the taxpayer, bringing the total to €29.3bn.

However a further €5bn again could be needed in a worst case scenario set out by the bank this morning.

Effective nationalisation of AIB is also to take place.

The Central Bank says once Anglo is split into an asset recovery bank and depositors bank the capital required from the taxpayer is €5bn.

This brings the 'final' bill to €29.3bn, but the bank said losses under a severe hypothetical scenario could be another €5bn.

The worst-case scenario assessment brings the possible final tally close to the €35bn estimate from ratings agency Standard and Poors.

"The assessment we have published today of the costs of Anglo’s restructuring reflect careful analysis of information from a range of sources," said Financial Regulator Matthew Elderfield.

" It also includes a projection based on a prudent hypothetical stress scenario which gives guidance as to the likely upper bound of those costs."

Meanwhile the Government is to pump another €3bn into AIB after the bank suffered a greater than expected haircut on NAMA loans.

The Government is also to shortly announce that less loans from AIB and Bank of Ireland are to go to NAMA - up to now anything over €5m qualified - but this will increase to €20m.

Meanwhile it has also been announced that changes are on the way in AIB management.

Group Managing Director Colm Doherty has had his contract terminated and is to leave the bank before the end of the year.

Dan O'Connor is to step down as executive chairman in the coming weeks.

Finance Minister Brian Lenihan said he hoped the actions announced this morning will give confidence to markets.

In a statement this morning Minister Lenihan said it was "an urgent and immediate priority to reinforce international market confidence in our ability and commitment to restore our banking system to health'.

The Government is now expecting a very substantial spike in Ireland's general government deficit this year, as a result of the support for the banks - bringing it to almost 32% of GDP.

Minister Lenihan confirmed this morning that a four-year budgetary plan, incorporating the plans to meet European requirements on reducing that deficit, will be published in early November.

Opposition parties criticised the Government's handling of the entire Anglo bailout.

Labour's deputy leader, Joan Burton, described today's announcement as Irelands "black Thursday".


http://www.breakingnews.ie/business/total-anglo-bill-293bn-475695.html#ixzz10zreu3Xm

Mittwoch, 29. September 2010

Investors to get 'the definite picture' of Anglo Irish

DUBLIN, Sept 29 (Reuters) - Ireland's foreign minister confirmed on Wednesday the government will unveil the final bill for winding down Anglo Irish Bank on Thursday and reiterated a commitment to getting the budget under control by 2014.

'You will get the definite picture tomorrow,' Micheal Martin said of Anglo Irish in an interview on national broadcaster RTE.

(Reporting by Carmel Crimmins) Keywords: IRELAND ECONOMY/ANNOUNCEMENT


http://www.finanznachrichten.de/nachrichten-2010-09/18095679-investors-to-get-the-definite-picture-of-anglo-irish-020.htm

Dienstag, 28. September 2010

Irische Regierung will machbaren Plan für Anglo Irish Bank vorlegen

Ireland to present manageable Anglo Irish plan -PM

DUBLIN, Sept 28 (Reuters) - Ireland will soon present a manageable plan to deal with Anglo Irish Bank and it will do all that is needed to build the confidence of investors, Prime Minister Brian Cowen said on Tuesday.

Asked if record high borrowing costs will mean Ireland will soon be shut out of markets and will need to access a euro zone rescue fund, Cowen said Ireland had already raised enough funds to see it through the middle of next year.

'We are determined to do what's necessary to achieve international confidence and build domestic confidence,' Cowen told reporters.

(Reporting by Andras Gergely; editing by Carmel Crimmins)

http://www.finanznachrichten.de/nachrichten-2010-09/18081656-ireland-to-present-manageable-anglo-irish-plan-pm-020.htm

Senior Anleihen-Inhaber haben nichts zu befürchten

Senior bondholders won't share Anglo debt burden

By Brendan Keenan and Maeve Dineen

Tuesday September 28 2010

THE Government will not ask senior bondholders to share the burden of Anglo's massive debts with taxpayers, the Irish Independent has learned.

This emerged last night after intense debate in government circles as to whether such a deal could be done with those who hold the most secure form of debt in the bank -- known as senior bondholders.

But concerns that any move not to pay in full would damage the country's credit rating -- and even the standing of the wider eurozone system -- won the day.

The Government has always insisted that senior bondholders have the same legal rights as depositors. Ministers believe it would be impossible to negotiate even a voluntary reduction of debt because bondholders would want depositors to share the loss.

On Thursday evening the governor of the Central Bank and the Financial Regulator will give their opinion on the scale of losses at Anglo, based on a comprehensive trawl by the National Asset Management Agency (NAMA).

Last night, they were still working on the final total. It is now expected that they will give two figures for losses at the bank. The lower will be based on losses on Anglo loans still to be moved to NAMA being similar to those already transferred; the higher one on a "worst case" scenario where losses are greater.

Anglo may need as much as €7bn of additional capital in a worst-case scenario, according to reports.

Financial markets are not convinced that the State can carry the burden of both the deficit on the public finances and the costs of winding down Anglo in an orderly fashion.

Thursday's figure is intended to reassure markets, but opposition politicians and other government critics are likely to zero in on the higher figure.

The Government remains determined that there will be no default or re-negotiation on senior Irish bank bonds even where they are not guaranteed by the State. An offer to buy back €2.4bn of junior debt for around €500m is likely to be made when the debt comes out of guarantee tomorrow.

"Two hundred US banks have failed and not a single senior bondholder lost out," an experienced observer said last night.

Holders of junior "subordinated" debt receive a better interest rate but would receive little or nothing if a bank went into liquidation.

Risk

Their Anglo loans are valued in the market at just 20c in the euro.

Credit-rating agency Moody's yesterday upped the possibility of some loss to senior lenders by applying different ratings to Anglo deposits and senior bonds.Moody's Investors Service yesterday downgraded Anglo Irish's junior debt by six steps and cut the senior debt by three steps.

It said that when Anglo was split and deposits moved into a holding bank, there would be a greater risk that bondholders of the bad bank would not be paid in full.

"While Moody's considers the likelihood of the Government not supporting this debt to be very small, this risk has been reflected in the three-notch downgrade," the agency said.

"It's all about whether Ireland can afford the bailout of Anglo Irish," said London-based banking analyst Tom Jenkins of Jeffries International.

"There are also the other banks that need cash and all the wider political and economic issues the country has."

- Brendan Keenan and Maeve Dineen

Irish Independent

Montag, 27. September 2010

Lenihan warned of dangers in renegotiating with Anglo lenders

By Brendan Keenan

Monday September 27 2010

OFFICIALS are still warning Finance Minister Brian Lenihan on the dangers of any attempt to re-negotiate terms with lenders to Anglo Irish Bank -- who could have a call on the bank's assets if they are not repaid.

The officials fear that even talking to holders of "senior debt", who are among the first to be entitled to their money back in the event of a bank failure, could increase speculation about a default -- where guaranteed debts are not repaid.

However, the Government is expected to approve a deal with holders of junior debt, who could lose everything if Anglo was wound down with only its own assets to pay its debts. They are already getting as little as 20 cent in the euro by selling Anglo junior debt on the market.

Yesterday, opposition politicians reacted to a report in 'The Sunday Times' on negotiation plans by saying the Government was embarked on a U-turn in its guarantee of lenders who hold Anglo Irish bonds.

The report said Mr Lenihan would sanction talks with senior bondholders who hold €4bn of the €14bn in senior Anglo debt and whose guarantee expires this week.


Weiterlesen...

Moody`s senkt Rating für Anglo Irish Bank Anleihen

Moody's Just Downgraded Anglo Irish Debt By Three Notches, While Warning Of MORE Government Support


And the hits keep on coming for Anglo Irish.

Now Moody's has downgraded the bank's non-backstopped debt (via FT Alphaville)

Moody’s Investors Service has today downgraded the senior debt rating of Anglo Irish Bank Corporation Limited (“Anglo Irish”) by three notches to Baa3/Prime-3 from A3/Prime-1, and is maintaining it on review for possible downgrade. At the same time, Moody’s has downgraded the dated subordinated debt held by Anglo Irish by six notches to Caa1 from Ba1 and has assigned a negative outlook…

...

“Moody’s expects a continued asset quality deterioration in the loan book of Anglo Irish that will require further government support for the bank’s liabilities,” says Ross Abercromby, Vice President and lead analyst for Anglo Irish at Moody’s. The rating agency believes that the novation of the deposits into the FB could increase the government’s options to share the burden of such support with other creditors that remain in the ARB. Without an explicit government guarantee for senior unsecured note holders, Moody’s believes that the ratings for these instruments need to incorporate this greater marginal risk.


Quelle: http://www.businessinsider.com/moodys-just-downgraded-anglo-irish-debt-by-three-notches-while-warning-of-more-government-support-2010-9#ixzz10iznurW6

Samstag, 25. September 2010

Wie gehts weiter mit den nachrangigen Anglo Irish Bank Anleihen?

Guarantee end to throw up options on Anglo debt

By Donal O'Donovan

Saturday September 25 2010

Markets like order, and they like information. At the moment we are providing neither and it's costing us dearly.

The end of the State's guarantee of €2.4bn of Anglo's subordinated bonds at the end of the month creates an opportunity to address both issues. This week, holders of the bonds were ringing around London advisers for any steer on where a possible removal of the guarantee leaves them and what could be coming down the line.

The expiration of the guarantee raises the possibility of an Anglo default. A default on unguaranteed Anglo bonds must not be confused with a national default.

But because we still have no legislation in place to manage a bank in default, an unexpected default today could prompt Anglo depositors to remove funds faster than the bank can cover them (a run).

It would also sharply increase the cost of borrowing for the other Irish banks -- just as their debt falls due to be refinanced and could easily spiral into a financial crisis on top of the current economic one.

The taxpayer would have to step in, and start the whole sorry process again.

But there are some smart alternatives. The Government has already indicated it plans a "liability management exercise" for Anglo debt. That is market chatter for cutting debt without going through a default.

Paper exchange

It could try to convince holders of subordinated (junior) bonds to exchange their paper for a smaller number of more senior bonds. Senior lenders might be uncomfortable with that, because it increases the amount of paper at their level. Junior bondholders might go for it, but it's hardly compelling and doesn't really reduce debt.

The easiest way to cut debt is to buy Anglo subordinated (junior) bonds close to the current trading price of 20c in the euro.

A buyback involving a willing buyer and a willing seller would reduce debt without the lender being actually seen to default.

The €2.4bn of subordinated bonds could be bought and cancelled for less than €500m.

Describing the difference as a profit would go too far, but it does limit the downside.

Subordinated (junior) bondholders would welcome it, they benefit because they get cash for bonds on a limited if any market. In a buyback they can probably expect a price somewhere above where the bonds trade today, though not far above, and in the overwhelming number of cases bondholders "book" a profit by selling even if they sell at a loss. That's because they "mark to market", raising and decreasing the book value of their bonds daily or weekly. Everybody wins?

Not quite. Senior bondholders would be unhappy. With €16.5bn of guaranteed senior debt outstanding they fear they too are ultimately at risk. They'd rather not see today's cash leak down the capital structure for fear it won't be around tomorrow. The simple answer is to extend the buybacks into the senior debt, offering market prices to willing sellers of any Anglo bond.

But taxpayers should also have concerns. A buyback that is not part of a coherent plan easily becomes good money after bad, and with a gaping hole in the national finances- €500m is real money.

Buybacks

Buybacks have been done for the banks before. Legally they are uncontroversial, but a really credible buyback requires a stick as well as a carrot. The end of the guarantee provides that, but only if the Government moves to introduce bank resolution legislation quickly.

Legislation setting out clearly how to transfer a bank to lenders without undermining the financial system would reassure markets that the bank system had a solid base while reminding investors that the guarantee was not open-ended. Without new banking legislation, as long as the State is solvent it remains the sucker of last resort, and everybody knows.

A debt-cutting buyback combined with a real plan to restore credibility to the banks, backed up with legislation, would show the wider markets that we are moving out of crisis mode. That could restore some semblance of normality to both the bank system and the national risk profile, and save us the bones of €2bn while we're at it.

Donal O'Donovan was the former debt-restructuring specialist at Thomson Reuters before recently joining the Irish Independent business desk

- Donal O'Donovan

Irish Independent

Donnerstag, 23. September 2010

Regierung plant Anleihen-Rückkauf

Anglo Irish Debt Buyback Is Said to Be Considered by Ireland's Government

Ireland’s government is considering options for Anglo Irish Bank Corp., including allowing the company to buy back subordinated debt, a person familiar with the situation said.

Anglo Irish, the Dublin-based lender taken over by the government last year, said as recently as Sept. 8 that the bank had sought approval from authorities to repurchase subordinated debt. Anglo Irish generated more than 1.5 bilion euros of profit from previous buybacks, said the person who declined to be identified because no final decision has been made.

The government is in talks with the European Commission on Anglo Irish, the person said.

Bloomberg


Interessanter Artikel zu Irland im Tagesanzeiger

Talfahrt ins Grüne

Von Margrit Sprecher

Die Iren in der Wirtschaftskrise: Auf ihren Balkonen pflanzen sie Broccoli. Die Hunde schläfern sie ein, weil das Futter zu teuer ist. Und den Brautstrauss kaufen sie bei Aldi.

«Wie nur», staunte ein Leser der «Irish Times», «ist es uns gelungen, als kleines Land mit vier Millionen Einwohnern Schulden wie eine Supernation zu machen? Mit dieser Summe könnten wir zweimal die Olympischen Spiele durchführen, vier Monate lang den Krieg in Afghanistan und im Irak bestreiten oder drei Teilchenbeschleuniger bauen. Oder wissen wir bereits genug über schwarze Löcher?»

Der Bösewicht Nummer eins

Das schwarze Loch trägt einen Namen: Anglo Irish Bank. In wenigen Monaten hat die drittgrösste Bank Irlands 26 Milliarden Euro Staatsgelder verschlungen, und das ist nur der Anfang, wie Finanzexperten versichern. Dabei sah eben noch alles so rosig aus. Unter den Bankangestellten gab es mehr Millionäre als auf den Bermudas, und auch die Kunden scheffelten Geld. Gerne erzählte Anglo-Irish-Boss Sean FitzPatrick, wie ihn ein Unbekannter auf der Strasse angesprochen und ihm für das Ferienhaus in Spanien gedankt hatte.

Heute ist aus dem Wohltäter FitzPatrick Irlands Bösewicht Nummer eins geworden. Sein Pub erteilte ihm Lokalverbot, um Unruhe unter den Gästen zu vermeiden. Im Golfklub drücken sich die früheren Freunde mit einem gemurmelten «Tut mir ja so leid für dich» rasch an ihm vorbei. Und die Presse titelt höhnisch: «Eine weitere dramatische Woche im Leben FitzPatricks», und zeigt ihn im Golfdress vor einem seiner sechs Anwesen. Seit er auch persönlich Konkurs angemeldet hat, gehören die Häuser der Gattin.

Das halbe Land ist bankrott

Bankrott ist nicht nur FitzPatrick. Bankrott ist das halbe Land. 300 000 Häuser und Wohnungen stehen leer. An manchen Strassen gibt es so viele «For sale»-Tafeln wie Briefkästen. Unzählige Bauruinen starren aus schwarzen Fensterhöhlen auf die grünen Wiesen. 15 Prozent aller Iren haben ihren Job verloren und suchen, wie zu den schlimmsten Hunger- und Massenauswanderungszeiten, Arbeit in England oder Amerika. Und als wäre das alles noch nicht genug, verkündet das irische Radio täglich neue Hiobsbotschaften und Firmenschliessungen.

Weiterlesen...

Dienstag, 21. September 2010

Default würde englische Gerichte beschäftigen

Any Anglo default would have to be dealt with in English courts

By Emmet Oliver

Wednesday September 22 2010

Any future default on bonds at Anglo Irish Bank would have to be adjudicated upon in the English courts and not in Ireland, the Irish Independent has confirmed.

The Government is not planning to default on any Anglo bonds, but the idea has been floated by third-level academics and some opposition politicians in recent weeks.

Instead of defaulting, the Government is expected to give the bank the go-ahead to do a bond buyback with some classes of bondholders -- but who precisely is not yet clear.

Bonds issued by Anglo over recent years are covered by English law, so if bondholders were to take legal action they would petition the English courts.

English law treats the rights of bondholders differently to Ireland. In recent cases in England between issuers and bondholders, the courts have ordered the issuer not only to pay missed coupons (interest payments), but also the legal costs incurred in taking the action in the first place.

Guarantee

A large number of so-called 'legacy' bonds issued by Anglo will no longer be covered by the blanket guarantee from next week when it is due to run out.

However, it may be extended and other bond issues are covered by the Eligible Liabilities Guarantee (ELG) which runs until the end of the year.

It has been reported that the Government will allow Anglo to launch a bond buyback as part of a restructuring plan agreed with the EU Commission.

This would allow Anglo to offer less than face value to bondholders and it could then book a gain on the difference between the face value and the price is it offering.

So far the only buybacks have been on subordinated debt and there have been no moves to carry out such an exercise with senior bonds.

Finance Minister Brian Lenihan has said he is totally opposed to any default on Anglo bonds. A voluntary buyback arrangement is not considered a default, but it must be entirely voluntary, allowing the bondholder to refuse the offer and hold the bond until maturity.

- Emmet Oliver

Irish Independent



Montag, 20. September 2010

Regierung schlägt Anleihen-Rückkauf vor

Government proposes Anglo bond buyback
By Cliff Taylor

The government is expected to launch a bond buyback for Anglo Irish Bank in the coming weeks, as part of a restructuring plan agreed with the EU Commission.

The buyback, which will reduce the bill for taxpayers, will offer some bond holders in the new Anglo asset recovery vehicle the option of a bond, or a term deposit, in the new funding bank, at a significant discount.

While it will go some way to reducing the taxpayers’ bill, any amount recovered from bondholders will pay only a small portion of the overall cost, expected to approach €30 billion.

The reason for offering bondholders alternative investments, as opposed to cash, would be to avoid an immediate cash payout by the exchequer.

The government has already announced that Anglo is to be split into two sections - an asset recovery vehicle, to wind down loans not transferring to Nama, and a funding bank for deposits.

The bondholders’ liabilities will initially move to the asset recovery vehicle.

While full details of the Anglo plan have still to be agreed, sources have said that the government will seek a significant discount from subordinated bondholders, who have investments of more than €2 billion in Anglo.

These bondholders may be offered the option of transferring at a steep discount to a bondholding or a term deposit in the funding bank, or remaining as bondholders in the asset recovery vehicle, with no guarantee of getting anything back.

As this debt is trading at around 20 to 30 cent in the euro - and none of it will be covered by state guarantee after the end of this month - the government is likely to be able to recoup the bulk of the cash owed to these investors.

It is not clear whether the government will also offer buyback terms to higher-ranking bondholders - known as senior debt holders.

The government has been adamant that it will not default on these bondholders, but it could still offer to buy back the portion of Anglo senior debt invested before the September 2008 guarantee, around €4 billion. If it did so, then the discount on this would be much less.

The remainder of Anglo’s senior debt - about €10 billion - was issued under government guarantee in the last two years and is thus unlikely to be affected.

Last week, Fine Gael leader Enda Kenny wrote to the EU competition commission saying there was, in his party’s view, ‘‘no sound legal or economic case for the Irish taxpayer to repay bond investors in Anglo Irish Bank following the expiry of the guarantee’’.

The letter made it clear that he was referring to those bondholders who invested before the September 2008 guarantee, both subordinated and senior debt holders.

Labour Party leader Eamon Gilmore has also called on the government to negotiate with bondholders.

Senior government sources have pointed out that, while there was a general expectation of subordinated bondholders taking significant losses, any move to default openly on more senior debt would have serious consequences for the state’s ability to raise borrowings and for the ability of the other banks to roll over their debts.

Quelle: http://www.sbpost.ie/news/ireland/government-proposes-anglo-bond-buyback-51762.html


Gesamtkosten wohl nicht so hoch wie befürchtet

20.09.2010 11:13
Anglo Irish bill not as high as some fear-c.bank

DUBLIN, Sept 20 (Reuters) - Ireland's central bank governor said on Monday the cost of dealing with Anglo Irish Bank would not be as high as some commentators have forecast but he did not give an indication of what the final bill may be.

'It will be less than numbers recently touted around,' Patrick Honohan said in a speech at a financial regulation conference in Dublin, without specifying which numbers he meant.

Recently, rating agency Standard&Poor's said the cost of bailing out Anglo Irish could hit 35 billion euros ($46 billion), triggering criticism among Irish officials. So far, Ireland has pumped nearly 23 billion euros into the nationalised lender.

(Editing by Ruth Pitchford) ($1=.7641 Euro) Keywords: IRELAND ECONOMY/ANGLOIRISH

http://www.finanznachrichten.de/nachrichten-2010-09/18003593-anglo-irish-bill-not-as-high-as-some-fear-c-bank-020.htm

Freitag, 17. September 2010

interessanter Kommentar zu Anleihen-Verzichtsforderungen

By Emmet Oliver

Friday September 17 2010

These are desperate economic times. So desperate that the subject of Ireland defaulting on its bank and sovereign debts is now routine conversation among academics, bankers and economists.

However, up until now, such an idea was rarely entertained by senior politicians, but in a surprising move yesterday the leader of the Labour Party, Eamon Gilmore, came very close to suggesting such a course of action when he talked about the Government "negotiating'' with bondholders in Anglo Irish Bank.

While Mr Gilmore trenchantly denied such an approach meant defaulting, he certainly came very close to that position. According to the last balance sheet published for Anglo Irish Bank, bondholders have €16.5bn invested in the bank, while other investors have €2.4bn invested in more risky subordinated bonds at Anglo.

While there is almost unanimous agreement now that the subordinated bondholders should be either given nothing or very little by the Irish State, the more pressing issue is whether Ireland, which now owns Anglo, should welch on obligations to the senior debt holders, most of them German, British and French asset and pension funds.

Mr Gilmore said he was not recommending a default on these debts, but instead was suggesting negotiations begin with the holders. This suggestion has a populist ring to it, because as long as the bondholders don't absorb any losses, it means all of the Anglo losses are absorbed by the Irish taxpayer instead.

But Mr Gilmore's problem and the deficiency in his argument is a lack of detail on how such an approach would work. Presumably the negotiations would be aimed at forcing some of the losses on the bondholders, otherwise there would be no point in such conversations.

The problem is that technically Anglo would be defaulting on its debts if it tried to get the bondholders to accept anything less than what they are owed.

Of course, Mr Gilmore (and his position got some support from Barclays last night) has some options. One is to simply press to reduce the total amount owed to the bondholders, allowing Anglo to book a gain from having to pay out less interest than originally agreed.

The second approach, one championed by the 'Financial Times', is to tell the bondholders you intend to swap their bonds for shares in Anglo.

This would effectively leave the bank, which is a heartbeat away from technical insolvency, in their hands. This is known as a debt-for-equity swap and is very common in downturns when companies run into problems. Technically it is also known as a distressed exchange offer. This approach could be taken, but again it comes with significant risks which need to be acknowledged by political commentators like Gilmore and others pressing for this course of action.

The problem with this idea is that there is no way Anglo Irish Bank is worth €16.5bn at the moment. So if the bondholders swapped all their bonds for Anglo shares they would be settling for less than par value. This is a selective default.

Of course, the big danger is not what would happen in Anglo if this course is taken, but what would happen at the other Irish banks. By how much would their fund-raising costs go up? The answer, of course, is nobody knows, including all the commentators who give views on this subject regularly.

The final danger is: would an Anglo technical default raise the funding costs for Ireland Inc itself? Again it is hard to say. There are two schools. One suggests that by cutting Anglo loose, Ireland becomes a better credit risk and funding costs could actually drop.

Others suggest once you welch on any debts, your funding costs elsewhere rise and you may even be locked out of the bond market entirely.

While Mr Gilmore's contribution is welcome, it is only right that he spell out the huge unknowns embodied in the approach he has recommended.

- Emmet Oliver

Irish Independent

------------------------

Man wird sich also langsam der möglichen Folgen bewusst, die eintreten könnten, falls Anleiheneigner rasiert werden. Zum Einen könnten die Finanzierungskosten für andere irische Banken und Irland selbst deutlich steigen. Zum anderen könnten Anleiheplatzierungen sowohl von irischen Banken als auch von Irland schwierig bis unmöglich werden und zwar nur um möglicherweise das halbe LT2-Volumen in Höhe von 1,7 Mrd. Euro zu sparen. (die andere Hälfte könnte man wohl auch mit einem Rückkaufangebot sparen)



Mittwoch, 15. September 2010

Fitch senkt Rating für Anglo Irish Bank, LT2-Rating bleibt konstant

Anglo Irish Bank downgrade from Fitch

Wednesday, 15 September 2010 12:44

Credit ratings agency Fitch has today downgraded Anglo Irish Bank to BBB+ and also put the bank on negative watch.

The agency said this follows the Finance Minister's announcement earlier this month regarding the new restructuring proposal for Anglo. This would see the bank split into two separate entities: the Asset Recovery Bank and the Funding Bank


Fitch said the downgrade reflects its view on the level of future Government support that will be available to Anglo's Asset Recovery Bank.

Weiterlesen...

Darüber hinaus war im Bondboard zu lesen, dass mit einem Rückkaufangebot wohl frühestens in einigen Monaten gerechnet werden kann, sobald die neue Struktur der beiden geplanten Bank-Teile realisiert wurde. Für Langfrist-Investoren ist diese Meldung allerdings recht unbedeutend.

Freitag, 10. September 2010

Anglo Split möglicherweise zum Jahreswechsel

Anglo split 'possible' by end of year

CIARA O'BRIEN

The splitting of Anglo Irish Bank into a funding bank and an asset recovery unit could be done by the end of the year, chief executive Mike Aynsley said today.

Mr Aynsley said the plan had brought certainty over Anglo, with a ""clear statement from the Government that it intended to stand behind depositors.

Speaking on RTÉ Radio this afternoon, Mr Aynsley said much of the work had already been started and the bank was hoping to complete it by the end of the year.

"This is not the form of the split that we had talked about previously, but there are many similarities and we've done a lot of work heading towards splitting the bank. There's a lot of work that's already been undertaken," he said.

The bank is going through a revision of the plan that will be submitted to Brussels in the coming weeks, he said.

"We want to get it done as soon as possible," he said. "The end of the year would be our target date at this point."

However, details needed to be worked through and Mr Aynsley said it was not yet known if splitting the bank would require legislation to be passed.

Other aspects, including governance of the bank and how separate its operations, would need to be worked out.

"What we want to do is optimise the underpinning infrastructure of the bank and make sure that the governance is suitable and appropriate for the two separate banks."

Mr Aynsley said there structural issues that need to be addressed in Ireland.

"The reality is that we do have a reliance as a nation on funding from the offshore markets and it's critical that we have mechanisms to get depositors from all parts of the world comfortable that ire is a safe place to put their funds," Mr Aynsley said.

He said he expects to continue his involvement in the banks, but did not know what his role would be once the split was completed.

Earlier today, Mr Aynsely told Bloomberg Television that €25 billion is a "pretty good estimate" of the total bailout cost for the bank.

Weiterlesen...


NAMA soll Anglo Kreditportfolio rasch übernehmen

NAMA to fast-track transfer of Anglo loans
By Laura Noonan
Friday September 10 2010

THE National Asset Management Agency (NAMA) may be asked to take over the remainder of Anglo Irish Bank's development loans at a "block discount" to speed up calculations on the bank's funding needs.

The Irish Independent has learnt that the block deal is one of a handful of options being mulled over by the Department of Finance as it battles to bring 'clarity' to Anglo's finances by October.

As things stand, Anglo's loans are being assessed on an individual basis so the bank won't know the hit on the remaining €19bn of loans it's transferring until February, when the final loans migrate to the State's bad bank.

Finance Minister Brian Lenihan this week hinted that Anglo's NAMA process might be fast-tracked to enable the Financial Regulator to rule on the bank's capital requirements "by October", adding that a variety of NAMA options could be considered "in a very short space of time".

Weiterlesen...

Donnerstag, 9. September 2010

Gute Chancen für Rückzahlung zu 100% nach Entscheidung

Die Anglo Irish Bank wird aufgespalten. Während ein Teil als staatliche Einlagenbank für Guthaben dienen wird, soll das Kreditgeschäft in einer separaten Gesellschaft über einen längeren Zeitraum (bis max. 15 Jahre) abgespalten und abgewickelt werden. Kredite werden nicht mehr vergeben und damit ist es für Anglo mit dem klassischen Bankgeschäft vorbei auch wenn sich der Staat über Kundeneinlagen eine neue Finanzierungsquelle schafft.

Einer vollständigen Rückzahlung der LT2-Bonds steht damit nichts im Wege und es spricht auch nichts dagegen. Vielmehr ist mit einem baldigen Rückkaufangebot zu rechnen, welches nach den Turbulenzen hoffentlich von vielen Anleihegläubigern angenommen wird. Das verbleibende ausstehende Volumen sollte dann recht überschaubar sein und mit großer Wahrscheinlichkeit zur Fälligkeit mit 100% des Nominalwerts bedient werden. Gute Aussichten also!

Mittwoch, 8. September 2010

Financial Times Artikel zur Anglo-Entscheidung

Irland spaltet Problembank und verunsichert Anleger

Es sollte ein Befreiungsschlag werden: Die Regierung in Dublin gibt endlich bekannt, wie sie die Zeitbombe Anglo Irish Bank entschärfen will. Investoren fühlen sich dennoch im Stich gelassen.

von Christine Mai Frankfurt

Die irische Regierung will die schwer angeschlagene verstaatlichte Anglo Irish Bank aufspalten und abwickeln. Das teilte das Finanzministerium am Mittwoch mit. "Die heutige Entscheidung der Regierung wird Sicherheit über die Zukunft von Anglo Irish Bank bringen", sagte Finanzminister Brian Lenihan. "Eine Lösung für diese, unsere notleidendste Institution, ist unerlässlich, um Vertrauen in unser Finanzsystem zu stützen."

Die Kredite, die nach den Transfers an die nationale Bad Bank Nama noch bleiben, sollen demnach in eine bankeigene Einheit ausgelagert und abgewickelt oder verkauft werden. Die Kundeneinlagen sollen davon komplett abgetrennt und in neue Bank in Besitz des Finanzministeriums überführt werden. Kreditgeschäft soll dieses Institut nicht betreiben. Die Pläne müssen von der Europäischen Kommission noch abgesegnet werden.

Weiterlesen...

Dublin says to honour Anglo Irish senior bonds

DUBLIN, Sept 8 (Reuters) - The Irish government will not default on any of nationalised Anglo Irish Bank's senior bonds because it would endanger the sovereign's own funding prospects, the finance minister said on Wednesday.

'We have done liability management exercises with subordinated bonds already,' Lenihan told journalists at a briefing on the future of Anglo Irish Bank.

'The state is not going to default on senior bonds because of the threat that that would pose for the raising of funds for the state itself,' Lenihan said.

http://www.finanznachrichten.de/nachrichten-2010-09/17907955-dublin-says-to-honour-anglo-irish-senior-bonds-020.htm

EU-Komission äußert sich positiv zur Anglo-Entscheidung

08.09.2010 17:37
EU positive on Irish decision on Anglo-Irish

BRUSSELS, Sept 8 (Reuters) - European Union competition chief Joaquin Almunia backed on Wednesday Ireland's decision to split the nationalised Anglo-Irish bank into two institutions in the process of winding down the ailing lender.

Ireland's government will split Anglo Irish Bank into a funding bank and an asset recovery bank to wind down its assets over an unspecified period of time, the finance ministry said on Wednesday.

Under the plans, the funding bank will not engage in any new business, simply providing a home for Anglo's depositors -- contrary to Anglo management's own plans for a niche business lender.

Finance Minister Brian Lenihan said the asset recovery bank would be a licensed bank focused on working out Anglo's remaining soured property loans while the funding bank would be a specialist deposit bank to house Anglo's deposits.

'I view this new option positively as it would deal better with the distortions of competition,' Almunia said in a statement.

'However, a number of important aspects still need to be clarified, and a new notification received, before the Commission is in a position to finalise its assessment and to take a decision,' he said.


http://www.finanznachrichten.de/nachrichten-2010-09/17907784-eu-positive-on-irish-decision-on-anglo-irish-020.htm

Regierungsstatement: Aufspaltung der Anglo Irish Bank beschlossen

Statement – Anglo Irish Bank

The Minister for Finance today briefed his Government colleagues on the strategic options for the future of Anglo Irish Bank. The Minister conveyed to the Government the views of the Board of Anglo Irish Bank, the Central Bank, the National Treasury Management Agency, the Department of Finance, the EU Commission and his own assessment of the position.

The Government decided that Anglo Irish Bank will be split into a Funding Bank and an Asset Recovery Bank. Anglo Irish Bank has not expanded its loan book since it was nationalised in early 2009 and this will remain the case. It is intended that in due course the Recovery Bank will be sold in whole or in part or that its assets will be run off over a period of time.

The guaranteed position of depositors will be unchanged by the new arrangements and no action is required of them as a result of today’s announcement. The depositors will become customers of the Funding Bank which will be fully capitalized and continue as a regulated bank.

In order to restore the reputation of the Irish Financial System it is essential to bring finality to the problem of Anglo Irish Bank – our most distressed institution.

The Government’s primary objective in dealing with Anglo Irish Bank has been to minimise the cost of this distressed bank to the Irish taxpayer.

The Board of Anglo Irish Bank submitted its preferred option to the Minister and to the European Commission at the end of May for consideration under State Aid rules. The board’s plan envisaged splitting the bank into an asset management company and a new good bank. The asset management company would have managed out over time the bank’s lower quality assets remaining after the transfers to NAMA. The new good bank would have managed the remaining share of the loan book, retained the bank’s deposit funding and sought new lending opportunities to grow the bank.

The Minister acknowledges the good faith and hard work of the board in producing a credible proposal for the future of the bank.

However, the Government has concluded that this plan in its current form does not now provide the most viable and sustainable solution to ensure the continued stability of the Irish banking system.

Resolution Proposal

In these circumstances, the Government has decided to opt for a variation of the board’s restructuring proposal. The Government’s decision does not affect existing guarantee arrangements.

Under the restructuring plan, the Funding Bank will be a Government-backed/guaranteed specialist deposit bank which will contain the bank’s deposit book. It will be a stand-alone, regulated bank, completely separated from Anglo’s loan assets and it will be owned directly by the Minister for Finance. This bank will not engage in any lending, but will provide a secure home for Anglo’s depositors and any new customers who wish to deposit their funds with it. Depositors with the Funding Bank will be completely insulated from the future performance of the rest of the current Anglo Irish Bank loan book.

The Asset Recovery Bank will also be a licensed regulated bank. Its dedicated focus will be on the work-out over a period of time of the assets not being transferred to NAMA in a manner which maximises the return to the taxpayer.

Costs

The Government believes that it is essential to identify, with as much certainty as possible, the final cost for the restructuring and resolution of the bank. This will underpin international financial confidence in Ireland. Accordingly, the Central Bank will determine the appropriate levels of capital needed in both institutions. Its decision will be announced by October.

EU Commission

The Department of Finance has conducted intensive discussions with the EU Commission in recent weeks about the future of Anglo Irish Bank. The Minister for Finance met Commissioner Almunia last Monday to discuss the issue. A formal detailed plan is being prepared for submission to the Commission for approval.

The Minister said:

“Today’s decision by the Government will provide certainty about the future of Anglo Irish Bank. Resolution of this, our most distressed institution, is essential to the promotion of confidence and stability in our financial system.”

8th September 2010

ENDS

http://www.finance.gov.ie/viewdoc.asp?DocID=6483

Anglo Irish Bank CFO möchte nachrangige Anleihen zurückkaufen

Anglo Irish Sought Approval to Buy Back More Subordinated Debt

Sept. 8 (Bloomberg) -- Anglo Irish Bank Corp. Chief
Financial Officer Maarten van Eden said the bank has sought
approval from Irish authorities to launch another buyback of
subordinated debt.
The bank has not yet received approval for a buyback, van
Eden said in an interview in Dublin today. He said it would be a
“disaster” to default on bonds.


Quelle: Posting im Bondboard-Thread

Irische Regierung berät über Pläne für Anglo Irish Bank

08.09.2010 12:22
Irish govt meets on Anglo; banks, bonds deep in red

By Carmel Crimmins

DUBLIN, Sept 8 (Reuters) - Ireland's cabinet was nearing a decision on how to deal with troubled Anglo Irish Bank on Wednesday, officials said, after an extension of state support failed to soothe fears the lender could drive its economy deeper into crisis.

Irish bond spreads stayed at euro lifetime peaks and shares in its top two banks dropped sharply amid continuing uncertainty over the final bill for bailing out Anglo, and the burden it will place on Irish public debt levels.

Finance Minister Brian Lenihan is briefing colleagues at a cabinet meeting this morning on what should be done with the bank after two days of talks with European Commission officials.

A junior minister said a final decision was in the offing but he gave no clarity on whether that would be on Wednesday.

'We are coming to endgame here,' Eamon O'Cuiv, the minister for social protection, told Newstalk Radio.

Depending on what is agreed, a cabinet statement may be issued this afternoon, a source said.

Weiterlesen...

Heute Vorentscheidung über Anglo-Zukunft?

By Laura Noonan

Wednesday September 08 2010

THE Government is poised to make a final decision on the future of embattled Anglo Irish Bank at a cabinet meeting today.

Anglo's day of reckoning comes after Monday's crunch talks between Finance Minister Brian Lenihan and the European Commission's state aid chiefs.

Speaking in Brussels last night, Mr Lenihan said Anglo's controversial plan to split itself into a 'good bank' and a 'bad bank' had been comprehensively examined. "The commission has expressed an opinion on it, not a binding opinion, but a view," he said.

"The Irish Central Bank has expressed a view, the National Treasury Management Agency has expressed a view and my department are working on it. All these opinions are being brought to the Government so they can make a decision."

Asked if the Government would be in a position to announce its preferred route for Anglo today, Mr Lenihan said he "anticipated" the Cabinet would "look at the options and come to a conclusion on the matter".

Weiterlesen...

Samstag, 4. September 2010

Markt sieht höheres Risiko für Anglo Irish Bank Anleihen

Bond market alarm grows on Anglo's future as losses soar

By Emmet Oliver Deputy Business Editor


Saturday September 04 2010

The bond market is growing increasingly concerned that Anglo Irish bondholders will be asked to bear some of the costs associated with the bank's disastrous losses.

Delays in getting a decision on the bank's future from the EU Commission, talk in Dublin circles about defaulting on some bonds and growing speculation of a government-inspired wind-down of the bank appear to be causing alarm in the bond market. Anglo is set to make losses of up to €15bn this year.

The cost of insuring senior bonds in Anglo has surged to its highest level since July 2009 and it now costs €687,000 to insure €10m worth of Anglo senior bonds. Credit-default swaps (CDSs) linked to the senior debt of Anglo Irish Bank jumped 54.5 basis points to 687 yesterday, according to data provider CMA.

While the risk of default on subordinated bonds has been high for more than a year, senior bonds in the bank appeared to be safe from these concerns, but this is changing even though the Government denies it plans not to honour debt obligations to these investors.

CDSs on subordinated Anglo bonds now stand at more than 1,000 basis points, up 16.95 basis points on Thursday alone. The holders of these instruments now appear to be concerned the bank will not honour their contracts, although some of the CDS trading is also likely to be purely speculative. Anglo's most recent balance sheet, to the end of June, shows the bank has €14.6bn in senior bonds, known as medium term notes. The bank is also on the hook for €2.4bn of subordinated bonds. Some of these are perpetual, with others maturing over the next four to five years.

The bank is facing major funding challenges this month with €7.9bn of government- guaranteed bonds due to mature. If these bonds cannot be rolled over, the bank will be forced to seek alternative funding via the European Central Bank (ECB).

Illogical

The concern among investors will appear to many as illogical because the Government is guaranteeing all liabilities until the end of the month.

In addition, another guarantee programme, the Eligible Liabilities Guarantee, covers specific bond issues for periods of up to five years. However, once the original blanket guarantee ends some liabilities will not be covered.

The Government and the EU are discussing extending this guarantee, but subordinated bonds are vulnerable to some kind of deal where holders get well below par value.

Anglo has already stopped coupon (interest) payments on some subordinated bonds, upon instructions from the European Commission. Bond buybacks have also been undertaken. These involved Anglo offering investors below face value (but more than market value) for some bonds and then booking a gain based on the difference.

- Emmet Oliver Deputy Business Editor

Irish Independent

Freitag, 3. September 2010

Sofort-Abwicklung von Anglo könnte 70 Mrd. Euro kosten

Anglo closure could cost €70bn - Cowen

Taoiseach Brian Cowen has said the immediate winding up of Anglo Irish Bank could cost €70bn or more, which, he said, would not be in the interest of Irish taxpayers.

He added, however, that the Government is anxious to bring the issue to finality as soon as its discussions with the European Union have been completed.

Mr Cowen said the Government was at one on this issue and the Minister for Finance Brian Lenihan would be attending a meeting with finance ministers in the EU early next week.

Mr Lenihan will be reporting to the Government on the issue again next Wednesday when he returns.

Mr Cowen said the Government is at an advanced stage in discussions with the European Commission at the moment and final documentation has been sent to the Commission on the matter.

The Taoiseach reiterated minimising exposure to the taxpayer, which is already considerable, is the Government's priority.

http://www.rte.ie/news/2010/0903/anglo.html


Donnerstag, 2. September 2010

Irische Minister für ordentliche Abwicklung über längeren Zeitraum

Ministers back lengthy Anglo wind-down

By Cathal McGuigan
The cabinet have stated that an "orderly wind-down" of Anglo Irish Bank over a lengthy period is the favoured for the bank.


Yesterday, the cabinet had a lengthy discussion on Anglo's future and made a statement afterwards that said it was determined that the issue be resolved at the least cost to the taxpayer.

“The Government is working with the EU authorities to that end; it is also in active discussion with the EU Commission about the future of the bank guarantee,” it said.

The wind-down of the bank is now the most likely option, while the bank's favoured solution, to create a good bank/bad bank, is less likely.

Speculation on future plans for Anglo Irish mounted this week following statements from Dan Boyle of the Green Party that the junior coalition partner preferred a quicker wind-down of the bank.

Minister for Finance Brian Lenihan will meet with fellow EU finance ministers on Monday and the issue of Anglo is expected to feature in discussions.

A final decision on the fate of the bank will depend on the view taken by the European Commission and the European Central Bank on the issue.

“Europe has stood firmly behind the Irish banking system and the difficulties in Anglo needed to be addressed and resolved in co-operation with the European authorities,” said Mr Lenihan.

http://www.insideireland.ie/index.cfm/section/news/ext/anglowinddown001/category/1084


Eine Abwicklung der Gesamtbank über einen längeren Zeitraum macht eine Rückzahlung der Anleihe zu 100% am Fälligkeitstag recht wahrscheinlich. Um 40% scheint die Anleihe einen Boden auszubilden, auf diesem Niveau gibt es aktuell ordentliche Kauforders.

Irisches Kabinett befürwortet Abwicklung der Anglo Irish Bank

Cabinet in favour of gradual wind-down at Anglo

'Good/bad bank' plan loses support

By Emmet Oliver and Maeve Dineen

Thursday September 02 2010

The Government now favours a gradual wind-down of Anglo Irish Bank, rather than the so-called "good bank/bad bank" model proposed by the bank's management, the Irish Independent understands.

Discussions involving the Department of Finance are now focusing on the gradual wind-down of the bank.

The Government has cooled on the idea of splitting the bank in two and putting 20pc of its assets into a new entity, but no final decision has been made by the EU Commission.

However, the Government remains totally opposed to any short-term closure of the bank and is determined to honour all obligations to depositors and bondholders, senior sources have said.

A total wind-down of the entire loan book now looks to be on the cards, which would rule out the possibility of establishing a new business bank from the wreckage of Anglo.

At present, Anglo chief executive and chairman Alan Dukes wants to put 20pc of the bank's assets into a new entity, with the rest of the loans being run down over time.

Weiterlesen...


Anleihe heute weiter unter Druck. Wird interessant ob es bald ein Rückkaufangebot gibt. Die Voraussetzungen dafür wären nach den gesunkenen Kursen, den negativen News und der großen Unsicherheit günstig, je tiefer der Kurs, desto besser die Aussichten für eine hohe Annahmequote bei einem interessanten Kursniveau.

Mittwoch, 1. September 2010

New York Times Artikel zu Anglo

Support of Anglo Irish Bank Strains Ireland

DUBLIN — Can one bank bring down a country?

Anglo Irish Bank, the midsize Irish lender whose profligacy has come to symbolize the excesses of the real estate bubble here, is doing its best to find out.

No other country aside from Iceland suffered a banking bust as severe as Ireland’s during the financial crisis. Ireland was also the country that took the most direct route in tackling the problem, by recognizing upfront the bad loans of its devastated banks and transferring them to government ledgers.

Both the United States and Britain avoided such a move by taking stakes in their troubled banks and, in the case of Britain, insuring their worst-performing loans.

Now the Irish government’s strategy is being called into question as its credit rating suffers and its borrowing costs resume their upward trajectory. Ireland’s struggle to cope with its mounting bank losses could well be a harbinger for other parts of Europe and for the United States as stuttering economic growth and stagnant housing markets put further strain on bank balance sheets.

Anglo Irish, which on Tuesday reported a first-half loss of 8.2 billion euros ($10.4 billion) also said the government had injected an additional 8 billion euros ($10.16 billion) into the bank, bringing total aid so far to 22 billion euros.

Mike Aynsley, the bank’s chief executive, said Tuesday that he expected the government’s total investment in the bank to be about 25 billion euros ($31.75 billion). He added that commercial property, the bank’s core lending market, which is already down 60 percent, had not yet reached bottom.

“Anytime you see a correction like that, you will see carnage,” he said. “But we think that the 25 billion euros will be largely sufficient.”

Weiterlesen...

Nach den schlechten Zahlen und der damit einhergehenden Presse verlor der Anleihenkurs wieder auf aktuell 46%. Sobald jedoch nach der EU-Entscheidung feststeht, welcher Weg seitens der irischen Regierung eingeschlagen wird, dürfte Bewegung in die LT2-Anleihen kommen. Am interessantesten wird sein, in welchem Unternehmen oder Abwicklungs-Vehikel die LT2-Anleihen landen und ob und in welchem Zeitraum eine Abwicklung geplant ist.